Asher Miller: The Post-Carbon Insitute's Executive Director, on Investment Risks in An Unraveling World. D.F.A, Or Please Do, #18
Plus, How to Leverage Commercial Register To Acquire Institutional LPs and How To Use Your Marketing Automation System To Reach Them!
This is a tough question to ask yourself “Am I a brave stewards of capital, or not?” Let's get straight to the point.
Your fiduciary duty isn't just about maximizing returns; it's about relaying the truth to your investors. It's about facing the reality of our world, not peddling pseudo-science or indulging in wishful thinking. That's why this interview with Asher Miller is both emotionally painful and sobering to read.
But it's also understandable, written in plain English, and focused squarely on the intersection of climate change and investment. This isn't an environmental journal piece; this is an interview about investing in a world undergoing a climate emergency.
I met Asher Miller a few years ago through his father, Avram Miller, a name many outside of Silicon Valley might not recognize. While I'm not a climate investor per se, I've found Asher to be my go-to person for understanding two critical things: (1) what the heck is going on with the climate crisis and (2) what the heck are investors supposed to do about it if they want to make money without destroying the Earth.
So, if you're serious about your role as an investor and steward of capital, read on. This is about being prepared for the world that's unfolding before us, whether we like it or not.
Asher, for the last 15 years, you’ve run an organization that’s helped millions of people better understand the grand challenges humanity faces in the 21st century, driven by 300 years of fossil fueled growth. You’ve recently co-authored a paper titled “Welcome to the Great Unraveling,” arguing that we’re now entering a new era of massive environmental and societal destabilization. What do you think investors, entrepreneurs, and family offices need to consider when navigating the coming months/years/decades?
Well, there’s so much to contend with, but I’ll share just two broad propositions, which I would encourage readers to mull over and—if they acknowledge even a 10% chance that I’m right—consider when making not only investment decisions but important life choices:
One, “past performance is no guarantee of future results.” That disclaimer, which I’m sure is familiar to most of your readers, should be applied to how we view the future of the planet, the global economy, and so many systems that most of us take for granted.
Take, for example, freely available food, water, and energy; a steady climate; just-in-time supply chains; largely functional governance; a relatively stable geopolitical order and trade; etc. And that’s simply because we’re now hitting the limits to and consequences of a period of exceptional growth.
Most people view that growth results from human ingenuity, technological progress, and market economies. But it’s really been driven by an explosion of energy, the consumption of finite resources, and the creation of vast pollution, including dangerous levels of greenhouse gases. In a blink of an eye, we’ve increased the global human population and per capita energy consumption 8-fold.
We’ve raised planetary temperatures beyond the range that enabled the formation of advanced civilizations over the last 10,000 years, with no sign of stopping, and we’ve decimated biodiversity on this planet.
Two hundred years ago wild mammals (elephants, bison, leopards, wolves, bears, etc.) outweighed humans at a 80:50 scale. Today, there’s only about 6 lbs. of wild mammal mass for each human. Just consider the loss of all of that incredible biodiversity!
Source: Tom Murphy, PhD, based on data from Greenspoon et al (2003).
It was inevitable that the party would have to end at some point, but our economic system, politics, social contract, cultural values and beliefs have all been built around an expectation that we can stay on the same trajectory forever, or at least the foreseeable future. Which is why it’s so critical to shift our expectations for the future and our personal and collective goals.
Embrace systems thinking and accept chaos.
In some ways what humanity now faces is a fairly simple story and one that many other species have encountered over geological time — the overshooting of our environment’s capacity to support our numbers and consumption.
But we’ve created such a highly-complex, interconnected world that it is essentially impossible to predict how so many environmental and social systems in various states of unraveling will play out.
Covid-19 provided a test run for what I anticipate will be more frequent, and possibly more severe, crises. What we witnessed was inconsistent, sometimes contradictory policy responses, supply chain brittleness, bifurcating views on “the truth,” growing distrust of our institutions, and profit and power seeking.
But also great displays of innovation and scientific collaboration, government interventions to meet essential needs, and people coming together in community.
When I consider where time, resources, and capital should be invested in the context of such complexity and uncertainty, I tend to think of what one my colleagues calls “no regrets” strategies — efforts that would be more likely to either (1) reduce overall risk or (2) minimize loss and suffering, and would apply under multiple future scenarios.
Through that lens, I would argue that investments in social cohesion, mutual aid, education, and community resilience are critical.
Asher, I knew your sister Dafna, growing up, and I knew your Dad, Avram, just from seeing him around synagogue a bit, but I didn’t know that he was pivotal person in technology - essentially Andy Grove’s right-hand man, and really responsible for getting DSL and internet technology in the homes of much of the world. When you look back on your own career in advocacy, climate change and how you’ve been effective at spreading the message, what did you learn from your dad, and also from your sister?
Adam, I really appreciate this question, especially you bringing up Dafna who we sadly lost a few years ago. So I will start with her. Though she was and always will be my little sister, Dafna’s fearlessness and work ethic were always things I admired and was a bit awestruck by. She was a 4’11” dynamo! Dafna was never afraid to speak her mind when she felt strongly about something, nor would be intimidated into silence or capitulation by people in positions of power. I’ve tried to apply that same conviction to my own work.
You referred to my father as being Andy Grove’s right-hand-man at Intel, but I think it may be fairer to consider him to the thorn in Andy’s side — a thorn that Andy knew was good for him and the company.
The point is that my father often played the role of rebel and visionary, guided by instinct rather than just cold, hard facts and holding views that ran counter to conventional wisdom. These were traits that weren’t typical at Intel or always warmly welcomed.
It wasn’t always easy, I think, for him to play that role. But he embraced it or maybe just couldn’t help himself. I learned from my dad the importance of trusting my instincts and of questioning conventional thinking. I’ve applied both to my career (though maybe I also can’t help myself!), along with lessons he’s taught me about how to think strategically, to treat everyone — no matter their position — with respect, and to forever pursue my curiosity. He’s also (probably inadvertently) taught me to question technology as an unadulterated good, having gotten to witness, through his close involvement in the growth of the Internet, how the unbridled optimism of the early days largely lost out to other, less positive forces.
Your report on the Great Unraveling paints a vivid picture of the interconnected environmental and social crises we’re facing. As we navigate this complex landscape, what investment strategies do you think could both mitigate the negative impacts of the Great Unraveling AND contribute to building household and community resilience? Specifically, how can investors align their portfolios with the need to maintain social cohesion and implement key changes in collective behavior, while ALSO seeking financial returns? Is there a way to do both?
I do think that there are likely opportunities for financial returns—particularly in the shift towards renewable energy, relocalization of supply chains, circular economies, and regenerative food systems—that also provide positive contributions towards more sustainable and resilient communities. (There are likely even higher risk/return investment opportunities in negative emissions technologies and other speculative decarbonization “solutions,” but I am highly skeptical of their scalability or social/environmental value.)
However, they may offer more modest financial returns and require greater patience than investments in the current economic paradigm. But if investors truly recognize the new era we’re entering and are serious about supporting greater resilience and sustainability, I would challenge them to broaden their definition of returns.
Many of the strategies that put us in a stronger position to mitigate and navigate the Great Unraveling require more patience, more human energy, and operate at smaller scales. Regenerative food systems tend to be more labor intensive. Social cohesion, mutual aid networks, systems thinking education, and courageous leadership—all of which will be absolutely critical in successfully responding to inevitable challenges—take time and depend on trust and relationship-building.
In simple terms, they are the opposite of the competition-minded transactional relationships (where the focus is on “winning” in an economic relationship) that make up modern capitalism.
If investors broaden their view of returns to include greater personal and collective resilience, along with healthier environmental systems, there are enormous opportunities available. I’ve seen this again and again with investors who have shifted at least part of their portfolios to support these efforts — some for-profit and some not-for-profit. They have found themselves benefiting by engaging directly with local communities and/or broader movements in ways that vastly exceed any financial returns they may have given up. And they recognize that their financial investments will be worthless in any case in a failed society and dying planet.
11 Investment Firms! (It used to be 8!)
Lead Zeppelin manages outreach for 11 investment firms!
The way investment firms work with Lead Zeppelin is simple. Clients choose a plan, and receive 1-2 investor meetings per day, typically LPs or family offices. To learn more, feel free to check out Lead Zeppelin’s pricing page or book an intake call.
How to Leverage Commercial Register To Acquire Institutional LPs Data Part 1
1. An Introduction to Commercial Register Data
What Exactly is Commercial Register Data?
Let's cut to the chase: Commercial Register Data is an invaluable resource that's often underutilized in acquiring LPs for investment funds. It's a comprehensive, official directory that provides key insights into a company's financial standing, leadership, and much more. If you're in the business of acquiring Limited Partners (LPs), this data can be a cornerstone of your strategy.
Types of Information You Can Access
So, what's on the menu? The types of information available can vary by jurisdiction, but here are the essentials you'll find:
1. Financial Overview: Balance sheets, income statements, and other key financial metrics are available. This stuff’s critical for assessing the financial stability of a potential LP, and helps your firm make informed decisions.
2. Key Decision-Makers: Information about the company's board members, CEOs, and other key figures is often listed. Knowing who's in charge allows you to tailor your outreach and LP negotiation strategies effectively.
3. Legal Status: Any ongoing lawsuits, bankruptcies, or other legal matters are usually disclosed. It's crucial to be aware of these when considering a company or individual’s suitability as an LP.
4. Business Operations: Details such as the company's industry, years in operation, and market reputation can provide valuable context. This helps you gauge whether a potential LP aligns with your investment focus, or even politics.
5. Ownership Structure: Shareholder information, parent companies, and subsidiaries are often listed. This is useful for understanding a company's decision-making hierarchy and for identifying any potential conflicts of interest.
6. Contact Information: Basic but vital—registered addresses, phone numbers, and sometimes even email addresses. Verified contact information is the starting point for any successful outreach campaign. We’ll get to marketing automation systems later in this article, and you can even remediate this data with cell phone numbers.
By leveraging this rich data, you're not just identifying potential LPs; you're gaining a comprehensive understanding of their business, which is key to a successful partnership.
2. Why It's a Goldmine for LP Acquisition
The Depth and Breadth of Data Available
Let's be real: In the investment world, knowledge is power. And when it comes to Commercial Register Data, the depth and breadth of information available is unparalleled. You're not just getting surface-level details; you're getting a 360-degree view of a company. From financial health to the organizational structure, it's all there at your fingertips. This comprehensive data allows you to not only identify but also vet potential LPs with a level of detail that can significantly de-risk your investment decisions.
Complementing Outbound Email Platforms Like HubSpot or Apollo
Now, you might be wondering, "How does this all tie in with my existing tech stack?" Well, here's the kicker: Commercial Register Data can seamlessly integrate with outbound email platforms like HubSpot or Apollo.
Imagine automating your outreach campaigns with data that's not just abundant but also laser-focused. You can segment your email lists based on specific financial metrics, key decision-makers, or even industry types. This level of personalization can dramatically improve your engagement rates, making your LP acquisition process not just efficient but also highly effective. In this article we’re going to share with you exactly how we do it, so you can steal a page from our playbook.
By combining the rich data from commercial registers with the automation capabilities of platforms like HubSpot, you're essentially supercharging your LP acquisition strategy. It's like having your cake and eating it too—but in this case, the cake is a well-vetted, financially stable Limited Partner. Yummy!
3. Data Points to Focus On
Financial Health Indicators
When you're sifting through Commercial Register Data, it's easy to get lost in the sea of numbers. But let's zero in on what really matters: financial health indicators like revenue and profit margins. These metrics give you a snapshot of a company's economic stability, which is crucial when you're considering them as a potential LP. After all, you want partners who bring financial strength to the table.
Company Size and Industry
Another key aspect to consider is the company's size and the industry they operate in. This helps you gauge whether they align with your investment focus and risk appetite. For instance, a tech startup might offer high growth potential but come with higher risks, while a well-established manufacturing firm might offer stability but lower returns.
Key Decision-Makers and Their Roles
Knowing who calls the shots can be a game-changer. The Commercial Register often lists key decision-makers along with their roles in the company. This information is invaluable for tailoring your outreach strategy. Are you pitching to the CEO, the CFO, or perhaps even a board member? Each will have different concerns and hot buttons, and knowing this can make your pitch far more compelling.
4. Integration with Outbound Email Platforms and How To Integrate The Data In Real-Time
Importing Data into HubSpot or Similar Platforms, Like Apollo
So you've got this treasure trove of data—now what? The next step is to get this information into your outbound email platform, be it HubSpot, Apollo, or any other. Most of these platforms allow for easy data import via CSV files or even direct API integrations. The goal is to have a seamless flow of data that updates in real-time, ensuring your outreach is as timely as it is targeted.
Setting Up Automated Workflows
Once the data is in, it's time to put it to work. Most outbound email platforms offer robust workflow automation features. You can set up automated email sequences that trigger based on specific data points. For example, if a company hits a certain revenue threshold, that could trigger a more aggressive outreach campaign. (Yes, we characterize our outreach as aggressive).
Conversely, key decision-maker changes could prompt a softer reintroduction email. The possibilities are endless, and the automation ensures you're always hitting the right notes at the right time.
4. Integration with Outbound Email Platforms and How To Integrate The Data In Real-Time
Importing Data into HubSpot
1. Export Commercial Register Data: Export the data into a CSV file, including relevant columns like 'Company Name,' 'Revenue,' 'Industry,' etc.
2. Log into HubSpot: Open your HubSpot dashboard and navigate to 'Contacts.'
3. Import CSV: Click on 'Import' and then 'Start an Import.' Choose 'File from computer' and upload your CSV file.
4. Map Fields: During the import process, map the CSV columns to HubSpot properties, ensuring 'Company Name,' 'Revenue,' and other relevant fields are correctly mapped.
5. Complete the Import: Follow the remaining prompts to complete the import.
Setting Up Automated Workflows in HubSpot
1. Navigate to Workflows: Go to 'Automation' and then 'Workflows.'
2. Create New Workflow: Click on 'Create workflow.' Choose 'Contact-based' as the workflow type.
3. Set Triggers: Use filters to set triggers based on the Commercial Register Data, such as companies with revenue above a certain threshold.
4. Define Actions: Define the actions that should take place, like sending an email, assigning a sales rep, or changing a contact property.
5. Personalize Emails: Use personalization tokens for specific data points like 'Company Name' or 'Industry.'
6. Test the Workflow: Run tests to ensure everything works as expected.
7. Activate: Activate the workflow.
Importing Data into Apollo
1. Export Commercial Register Data: Same as above, export the data into a CSV file.
2. Log into Apollo: Open Apollo and go to 'Contacts.'
3. Import CSV: Click on 'Import' and upload your CSV file.
4. Map Fields: Map the CSV columns to Apollo fields, ensuring all relevant data is correctly mapped.
5. Complete the Import: Follow through with the import process.
Setting Up Automated Workflows in Apollo
1. Navigate to Sequences: In Apollo, go to 'Sequences.'
2. Create New Sequence: Click on 'New Sequence.'
3. Set Triggers: Use Apollo's filter options to set triggers based on the Commercial Register Data.
4. Define Actions: Define what actions should occur, such as sending an email or setting a task.
5. Personalize Emails: Use Apollo's personalization features to include specific data points in your emails.
6. Test the Sequence: Run a few test contacts through the sequence to make sure it works as expected.
7. Activate: Once you're satisfied, activate the sequence.
By following these steps for both HubSpot and Apollo, you'll have a robust, automated system that leverages Commercial Register Data for targeted, effective outreach.
This is the end of Part 1. Next week, we’ll publish Part 2 of this post! You can also read it in the Lead Zeppelin blog here.